A spreadsheet can tell you what a business earned last year. It cannot tell you whether the power supply is reliable, whether the community supports the operation, or whether management's word holds. In African markets, those facts often decide the investment.

The Limits of the Model

Models built far from the asset tend to miss the same things: infrastructure that behaves differently from the assumption, regulation applied unevenly, and market dynamics that never appear in a dataset. The numbers are the starting point of diligence, not the conclusion.

Time on the Ground

I spend time with management, customers and communities before forming a view. The pattern is consistent: some of the best opportunities in the region do not screen well on paper, and some of the best-looking numbers rest on fragile foundations. You only learn which is which by showing up.

Relationships as Information

The most reliable information in these markets travels through trusted relationships. Knowing who to call, and being someone people call back, is a form of diligence no data room replaces.